If you’re enjoying betting throughout the regular season, then there’s a good chance that you’ll enjoy betting on the playoffs. There are more or less 82 games worth of betting opportunities to be had during the playoffs, and you can even use historical knowledge for picking winning bets and gaining huge profits from the games. Even if you’re new to NBA betting, there are simple approaches you can use that can help you identify value and add more to your bankroll.
The most critical aspect you should always consider is to get to know your basics first. That means you have to understand the aspects of your bankroll and how to keep it alive as long as possible. Of course, this includes learning how to pick choice bets and finding better odds on different bookies. And for those who already have some experience betting on the playoffs, you can tell there’s a different feel.
Teams play the same opponent for several games in a row, which means there’s a lot of time for the coaches and the teams to adjust. Also, officiating crews tend to call the games differently, typically letting teams play more physically. With all that said, the playoffs are a different scenario for betting. Here are some betting tips you might want to use in the 2022 NBA playoffs.
Organize Your Funds Properly
Bankroll management is a proper skill that you have to master. Without the skills to properly handle your finances, your bankroll will dry up sooner than you think. But, of course, it’s not enough to just designate how much you want money you want to wager with for every bet. You also have to see the schedule of the playoffs.
The first thing you should do is check the playoff schedule and see if any series interests you. After that, figure out how much money you want to bet on that particular series and how many individual wagers you want to incorporate.
Once you have a number, divide the total amount of money you want to wager by the number of games you plan to bet. Remember to not go over the amount for any single game. This is called the staking plan.
You may also organize your staking plan by betting a fixed percentage of your total amount for every wager. You don’t have to calculate how much money you want to have in each bet because your wager percentage will grow along with your bankroll.
Look at the Positive Value
Finding value involves converting the published betting odds into an implied probability percentage. After that, you can make informed decisions based on the results. The implied probability is simple to calculate, and you don’t have to be a math whiz. Instead, what is challenging is coming up with accurate predictions based on those results.
It’s either a hit or miss, and there’s no in-between. This is why professional bettors spend most of their time crunching numbers and improving their accuracy based on their calculations. Sounds hard? It sure is, but you’ll slowly become fonder of its nuances once you get it.
Remember that when the real-life likelihood of an outcome happening is higher than the implied probability provided by the odds, that is what you call a positive value. You should mostly be betting on it.
Avoid the Recency Bias Like the Plague
The casual betting public tends to be completely enamored with the most recent performance of a team they watched, which means that when a team won its last game, they will think that they will continue winning. The NBA rarely works that way, but that’s a good thing.
Why? The more money the public bets on the team, the more it is valuable to bet against them. How? When most betting action is poured into the public favorite, the sportsbooks will make the opposite bet more valuable by giving it higher chances of happening or increasing its payout. When that happens, it’s your time to pounce.
But getting back to the topic, the recency bias is often wrong. So instead, look for bounce-back games. When a team lost its previous game in the NBA playoffs, and their next game is happening on their home court, you must bet on the home team.
This is especially true if the home team is an underdog by at least 10 points. Home dogs often win their games against NBA spreads by 58.3, which is over half by a little. But still, with those changes, they become extremely profitable to bet with.
The NBA playoffs are soon approaching and if you want to join in the fun and give yourself a good chance of winning your bets, follow the points discussed above. They might involve a little math, but you’ll get your compensation anyway if you win, which will most probably happen. That said, happy betting.